The
most significant security related events during the industrial age
were the atomic devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since then
efforts to manage and control the overwhelming power of nuclear
weapons has been at the very least successful in preventing the use
of this weapon again in a conflict situation.
Seeing
that the information age is still young, the question remains what
would be the most significant national security threats, emanating
from this age which governments will face in the future. Successful
management of these threats depends upon the ability of government
leaders to adapt to a rapidly changing global security environment.
While security threats associated with the earlier agricultural and
industrial age remains relevant, identifying upcoming threats to
national security in the information age remains a challenge.
Unfortunately, the lead time once enjoyed by decision makers to
analyze and respond to these and other changes is decreasing.
Traditional long-range planning models, with their inward focus and
reliance on historical data, do not encourage decision makers to
anticipate environmental changes and assess their impact on the
national security (Cope:1981). In this regard the study of a
phenomenon currently referred to as “information warfare” does
hold some promise, especially if the exponential growth of technology
is taken into account.
National
security threats remain closely linked to the shifting basis of state
power. As the global civilization moved from agriculture to industry
and then to information as bases of fundamental state power, the
power structures within states also changed. At its core the
transformation to an information based society represents a shift
from manufacturing to knowledge, where the creation, application and
dissemination of knowledge - rather than the production of
manufactured goods or agricultural products - is becoming the central
defining activity of modern society (Mazarr:1997). This shift has a
direct impact on how national security is being viewed by some
governments. At the same time there has been an increase in countries
studying innovative ways to try to gain an advantage by changing how
conflict are managed and power projected. The information society
brings new revolutionary technologies and means, which demand change
in the way state security, is managed (Lin:2000).
Regardless
of shifting global power structures a coherent national security
strategy is an important instrument. All states, even those with
limited resources, have a broad range of tools at their disposal to
advance their interests. These tools, whether diplomatic, economic,
informational, or military, provide the means by which they seek to
achieve their security objectives. A national security strategy
provides a rational framework for specifying interests in a
comprehensive and methodical way (Africa Center for Strategic
Studies:2005). However, security challenges stemming from the unique
demands posed by the information society have only recently been
taken into account in terms of national security. It can, however, be
expected that information warfare will become a central theme in the
future management of information age security threats.
Sources
Africa Center for
Strategic Studies, Background Paper on the Senior Leader Seminar,
Gaborone, Botswana, 19 June to 1 July 2005, p. 1.
Cope,
R. G. 1981. Environmental assessments for strategic planning. In
Poulton, N.L (Ed.), “Evaluation of management and planning systems”
New Directions for Institutional Research, Vol 31, pp. 5-15. San
Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Lin, A.C. 2000.
Comparison of the Information Warfare Capabilities of the ROC and
PRC, 27 December 2000, http://cryptome.org/cn2-infowar.htm, (27
October 2005).
Mazarr,
J.M. 1997. Global Trends 2005: The Challenge of the New Millennium
Center for International Studies.
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