Many
governments are acknowledging that information warfare is a major
national security threat. The information revolution and growing
global interdependence will increasingly result in the governments
but also corporate management being confronted directly and
indirectly by challenges posed by information warfare. While
elements of this phenomenon are as old as humankind, the information
age has created unique and new opportunities for information warfare
to manifest as an upcoming security threat in the 21st century.
Conceptually
differing definitions of what exactly information warfare constitute
remains a problem. After
a critical evaluation of broad, military and information
technology-oriented definitions, information warfare is defined as
actions focused on destabilising or manipulating the core information
networks of a state or entity in society with the aim of influencing
the ability and will to project power as well as efforts to counter
similar attacks by an opposing entity and/or state (van Vuuren,
2009).
The
core of this argument is that information as a power instrument can
be used in both offensive and defensive roles. The definition
proposed for information warfare encompasses three forms of
manifestation of information warfare, namely netwar, psychological
operations and cyberwarfare. The differentiation between the three
manifestations is done on a cognitive/technology continuum (van
Vuuren, 2009).
This
definition of information warfare provides an opportunity to identify
the common elements and significant characteristics of this
phenomenon. The significance of networked relationships, the
information revolution and digital age, are highlighted as central to
the development of information warfare. At the same time government
and businesses are increasingly vulnerable to information warfare.
While
it is clear that information warfare will be a major strategic
governance challenge in the future, research and analysis on the
options to manage this wide ranging risk would be needed to empower
the future leader/manager on all levels to be effective. This begs
the question, would it be possible to predict how information warfare
will manifest in the future? The short answer is no. While we cannot
know the future, we could know more about the future. The future is
not given, as there is a multitude of possible futures of which one
can manifest. The trans-disciplinary field of futures studies
encourages thinking on how today’s actions (or lack thereof) will
become the reality of tomorrow. This includes efforts to analyse the
causes, patterns and sources of change and stability with the aim of
creating foresight and alternative futures. Despite technological
progress being an integral part of our society today, civilisation is
seemingly racing itself into a “pathologically short attention
span”, according to one author, a trend which, he continues, is
“boosted by the acceleration of technology, the short-horizon
perspective of market-driven economics, the next-election perspective
of democracies, and the distractions of personal multitasking”
(Brand 1999:2).
Future
studies aims to take the longer view. It is mainly concerned with
understanding social realities or “constructs” which create the
future as well as the development of sustainable future-oriented
visions which can inspire communities and entities (Slaughter
1999:305). In this regard future studies serves as an instrument to
research the practical attainment of such views. Social reality can
be described as encompassing processes (how things are being done),
structures (how things are interrelated), outcomes (why things are
done), context (the environment’s influence) and ordering (how
things are kept intact) (Gharajedaghi 2006:29).
Futures
studies tools such as scenario planning, environmental scanning,
trend analysis, the Delphi method and systems thinking are generally
used by practitioners and academics. However, in terms of the
theoretical underpinning of future studies more work remains
necessary. Despite many futurists’ agreeing on the rationale, role
and aims of future studies, approaches to future studies differ
significantly. In order to overcome such a challenge a futurist model
was developed based on an environmental scan focussing on the issue
of information warfare (van Vuuren, 2011).
The
developed model identifies three main driving forces as central to
analysing modern human endeavours, namely the centrality of networks,
technological innovation and the prominence of transformation,
especially institutional transformation. The value of the model,
which also stresses the interactive and system elements, lies in
identifying the forces which will be crucial in creating the level of
insight into the issue of information warfare as an upcoming
management challenge (van Vuuren, 2011).
The
mentioned three driving forces are different in the contemporary
world compared with anything in past human experience. The first is
the level of global integration and the rise of networks, especially
social networks. Second, the spread of technology and the growing
wealth of many new states and networks have resulted in the
simultaneous emergence of a host of new innovative applications
changing, political and economic powers across the world, but also
creating inequality between states, groups and individuals. Thirdly,
societal change has been accelerated to new levels, resulting in
transformation being a constant reality affecting nearly all social
entities (van Vuuren, 2011).
While
the model cannot predict how information warfare will manifest in the
future, it can provide the framework for future research on managing
this problem. The model suggest that information warfare will be
central to all human and consequently economic activities in the
future ensuring that all world-class entities both private and
governmental will not only have to adopt the challenges that this
risk will bring, but ensure that it would be central to most
organizational business strategies.
Sources
Brand,
S. 1999. The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility. New
York: Basic Book Publishers.
Gharajedaghi,
J. 2006. Systems thinking: Managing chaos and complexity: A platform
for designing business architecture. Burlington: Elsevier Ltd.
Slaughter,
R.A. 1999. Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward
View Sydney: Prospect Media.
Vuuren,
R. Inligtingsoorlogvoering, die opkomende magprojekteringinstrument:
soeke na ’n definisie (Information warfare, an upcoming power
projection instrument: in search of a definition), LitNet Akademies
Vol 6(2) – August 2009. http://www.litnet.co.za/Article/inligtingsoorlogvoering-die-opkomende-magprojekteringinstrument-soeke-na-n-definisie
Vuuren,
R. 2011, Toekomsstudie: Instrument vir toekomsskepping (Future
studies: Instrument of future creation), LitNet Akademies Vol
8(2)–August 2011. http://www.litnet.co.za/Article/toekomsstudie-instrument-vir-toekomsskepping
